Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1–0 Mes Kerman: Result & Stats

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Kerman

M. Jahani 51'

9/11/2025

Azadegan League · Round 3Khalij Fars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shenavarsazi Qeshm31%

×Draw35%

Mes Kerman34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenavarsazi QeshmExpected goals in this matchMes Kerman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.85

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

0.80

Mes Kerman

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

0.88

creates per match

0.76

0.94

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

0.88

Mes Kerman

0.76

allows per match

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

0.94

Mes Kerman

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenavarsazi Qeshm+0.00on par

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenavarsazi Qeshm ↓

Mes Kerman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shenavarsazi Qeshm or draw

66%

Shenavarsazi Qeshm or Mes Kerman

65%

Draw or Mes Kerman

69%

Winning margin

Shenavarsazi Qeshm wins by 2+

10%

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1+ goals

55%

Shenavarsazi Qeshm 2+ goals

19%

Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3+ goals

5%

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

57%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

21%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shenavarsazi Qeshm (draw refunded)

48%

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenavarsazi Qeshm at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenavarsazi Qeshm attack 0.88 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Shenavarsazi Qeshm defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shenavarsazi Qeshm scores more

31%

level

35%

Mes Kerman scores more

34%

Mes Kerman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

M. Jahani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff