Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Kerman vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
J. Panahi 47'
A. Gholampour 44'
A. Vahedian 8'
2/2/2026Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mes Kerman54%
×Draw33%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.13
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
0.42

Mes Kerman creates 169% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
0.35

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1.24

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Shenavarsazi Qeshm+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Shenavarsazi Qeshm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
86%
Mes Kerman or Shenavarsazi Qeshm
67%
Draw or Shenavarsazi Qeshm
46%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
24%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
68%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
31%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
11%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1+ goals
34%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 2+ goals
7%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
80%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Shenavarsazi Qeshm away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Shenavarsazi Qeshm defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shenavarsazi Qeshm attack 0.35 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
54%
level
33%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm scores more
14%

Mes Kerman at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Vahedian
44'
A. Gholampour
47'
J. Panahi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 1–2 Shenavarsazi Qeshm

Shenavarsazi Qeshm beat Mes Kerman 2-1 in Azadegan League on February 2, 2026.

Goals: A. Vahedian (8'), A. Gholampour (44'), J. Panahi (47').