Shelbourne 2–2 Shamrock Rovers: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Shamrock Rovers

3/9/2026

Premier Division · Round 2Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shelbourne44%

×Draw25%

Shamrock Rovers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.25

Shelbourne

1.53

Shamrock Rovers

1.25

Shelbourne creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.09

creates per match

1.41

1.09

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Shelbourne

2.09

Shamrock Rovers

1.41

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.09

Shamrock Rovers

0.98

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Shelbourne-0.29scores less

Shamrock Rovers-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

69%

Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers

75%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

56%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

22%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

78%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

45%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

20%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

71%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

58%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 5 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.09 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.53

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Shelbourne defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shelbourne scores more

44%

level

25%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

31%

Shelbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff