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Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2019

Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
10/10/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 28Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Shamrock Rovers51%
×Draw26%
Shelbourne23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers
1.50
Shelbourne
0.92

Shamrock Rovers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 92 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers
1.98
Shelbourne
1.13

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers
0.71
Shelbourne
1.01

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par
Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw
77%
Shamrock Rovers or Shelbourne
74%
Draw or Shelbourne
49%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
26%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
19%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
60%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
23%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
69%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.98 + Shelbourne defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shelbourne attack 1.13 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more
51%
level
26%
Shelbourne scores more
23%

Shamrock Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Division: Shamrock Rovers 0–1 Shelbourne

Shelbourne beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 in Premier Division on October 10, 2025.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.