Shelbourne 2–3 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Dundalk

J. Martin 67'

Z. Ibsen Rossi 60'

Z. Ibsen Rossi 86' (OG)

B. Burns 22'

G. Arubi 11'

4/3/2026

Premier Division · Round 9Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Shelbourne38%

×Draw28%

Dundalk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Shelbourne

1.23

Dundalk

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

1.24

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.24

Dundalk

1.20

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.09

Dundalk

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

66%

Shelbourne or Dundalk

72%

Draw or Dundalk

62%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

16%

Dundalk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

71%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

35%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

13%

Dundalk 1+ goals

68%

Dundalk 2+ goals

32%

Dundalk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

53%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 92 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.24 + Dundalk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dundalk attack 1.20 + Shelbourne defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shelbourne scores more

38%

level

28%

Dundalk scores more

34%

Shelbourne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Martin

Shelbourne · F

8.7

Match Events

11'

G. Arubi↳ C. O'Keeffe

22'

39'

40'

46'

46'

S. Gannon← E. Caffrey

46'

W. Jarvis← M. Lundgren

51'

Sean Gannon

60'

Z. Ibsen Rossi↳ J. Martin

65'

67'

68'

69'

69'

73'

79'

83'

86'

Z. Ibsen RossiOwn goal

89'

H. Warren← B. Burns

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneDundalk

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots20

5Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots20

4On Target9

7Off Target5

1Blocked6

10Inside Box14

2Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

505Total Passes293

409Accurate Passes195

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Premier Division: Shelbourne 2–3 Dundalk

Dundalk beat Shelbourne 3-2 in Premier Division on April 3, 2026.

Goals: G. Arubi (11'), B. Burns (22'), Z. Ibsen Rossi (60', 86' o.g.), J. Martin (67').

Shelbourne controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Tolka Park in Dublin.

Shelbourne vs Dundalk — Premier Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier Division: Shelbourne 2–3 Dundalk