Dundalk 1–2 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shelbourne

D. Horgan 89' (pen)

K. McInroy 52'

D. Kelly 11'

5/1/2026

Premier Division · Round 14Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dundalk48%

×Draw23%

Shelbourne29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.35

Dundalk

1.81

Shelbourne

1.35

Dundalk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Dundalk

2.18

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

Dundalk

1.32

Shelbourne

1.45

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Dundalk+0.22scores more

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

71%

Dundalk or Shelbourne

77%

Draw or Shelbourne

52%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

26%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

84%

Dundalk 2+ goals

54%

Dundalk 3+ goals

27%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

74%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

39%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

63%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.18 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Dundalk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dundalk scores more

48%

level

23%

Shelbourne scores more

29%

Dundalk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. McInroy

Shelbourne · M

8.7

Match Events

11'

20'

20'

42'

45'

46'

46'

46'

R. Cornwall← H. Warren

51'

Bobby Burns

52'

K. McInroy

55'

Harry Wood

69'

A. Coote← H. Wood

73'

H. Groome← R. Teahan

81'

E. Caffrey← J. Henry-Francis

81'

R. Freitas← S. Boyd

87'

Daniel Kelly

89'

D. HorganPenalty

90+7'

Declan McDaid

90+1'

Tyreke Wilson

90+5'

E. Chapman← D. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DundalkShelbourne

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots14

1.72Expected Goals (xG)1.80

5Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked4

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box7

Passing

66%Possession34%

509Total Passes270

378Accurate Passes147

74%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3