Shelbourne 2–1 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dundalk

H. Muller 74' (OG)

L. Burt 51'

R. Benson 90+1'

3/29/2024

Premier Division · Round 7Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shelbourne57%

×Draw21%

Dundalk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.21

Shelbourne

2.05

Dundalk

1.21

Shelbourne creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.02

creates per match

1.47

0.94

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Shelbourne

2.02

Dundalk

1.47

allows per match

Shelbourne

0.94

Dundalk

2.09

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Shelbourne-0.02on par

Dundalk-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

78%

Shelbourne or Dundalk

79%

Draw or Dundalk

43%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

34%

Dundalk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

87%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

61%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

33%

Dundalk 1+ goals

70%

Dundalk 2+ goals

34%

Dundalk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

72%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 6 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.09 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.02 + Dundalk defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.05

Dundalk attack 1.47 + Shelbourne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shelbourne scores more

57%

level

21%

Dundalk scores more

22%

Shelbourne at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

67

L. Burt

Shelbourne · M

7.9

Match Events

43'

45+2'

45+2'

45+2'

51'

L. Burt↳ M. Coyle

55'

Ross Munro

63'

E. Caffrey← M. Smith

66'

R. O'Kane← S. Durrant

73'

J. Gullan← C. Elliott

73'

C. McGuckin← K. Oostenbrink

74'

H. MullerOwn goal

77'

J. O'Sullivan← L. Burt

77'

J. Martin← S. Boyd

81'

J. Mountney← H. Muller

82'

Z. Bradshaw← Z. Johnson

83'

D. Williams← J. Lunney

83'

K. Ledwidge← W. Jarvis

90+1'

R. Benson↳ J. Mountney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneDundalk

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots5

4Corners4

7Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots5

4On Target3

1Off Target0

4Blocked2

4Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

427Total Passes490

335Accurate Passes395

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0