Shelbourne 2–1 Cork City: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cork City

W. Jarvis 45+2'

J. Moylan 28'

R. Keating 36' (pen)

9/22/2023

Premier Division · Round 31Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Shelbourne55%

×Draw25%

Cork City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.91

Shelbourne

1.65

Cork City

0.91

Shelbourne creates 81% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 60 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

1.09

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.24

Cork City

0.73

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.09

Cork City

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

79%

Shelbourne or Cork City

75%

Draw or Cork City

45%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

30%

Cork City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

81%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

49%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

23%

Cork City 1+ goals

60%

Cork City 2+ goals

23%

Cork City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

73%

Cork City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 92 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.24 + Cork City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cork City attack 0.73 + Shelbourne defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shelbourne scores more

55%

level

25%

Cork City scores more

21%

Shelbourne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

H. Wood

Shelbourne · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

20'

22'

28'

36'

R. KeatingPenalty

45+2'

W. Jarvis↳ H. Wood

46'

A. Quinn← P. Barrett

57'

Cian Coleman

58'

T. Wilson← Euclides Cabral

72'

E. Caffrey← S. Farrell

82'

G. Walker← J. Honohan

82'

J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh← B. Worman

88'

B. McManus← J. Lunney

88'

J. Wilson← W. Jarvis

90+3'

Aaron Bolger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneCork

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots15

5Corners1

7Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target9

4Off Target2

5Blocked4

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

551Total Passes345

460Accurate Passes256

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1