Cork City 1–2 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shelbourne

S. Maguire 79'

J. Henry-Francis 88'

D. Kelly 3'

10/13/2025

Premier Division · Round 33Turners Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City31%

×Draw30%

Shelbourne40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.15

Cork City

0.98

Shelbourne

1.15

Shelbourne creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 91 away

0.97

creates per match

1.12

1.18

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Cork City

0.97

Shelbourne

1.12

allows per match

Cork City

1.18

Shelbourne

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

60%

Cork City or Shelbourne

70%

Draw or Shelbourne

69%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

11%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

62%

Cork City 2+ goals

26%

Cork City 3+ goals

8%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

68%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

32%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

44%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.99 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 0.97 + Shelbourne defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Shelbourne attack 1.12 + Cork City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cork City scores more

31%

level

30%

Shelbourne scores more

40%

Shelbourne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Henry-Francis

Shelbourne · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

D. Kelly↳ K. McInroy

29'

Harry Wood

55'

T. Wilson← J. Norris

55'

S. Boyd← H. Wood

66'

66'

74'

75'

78'

79'

S. Maguire↳ D. Crowley

81'

A. Odubeko← J. Martin

83'

Evan McLaughlin

85'

Jack Henry-Francis

86'

C. Lutz← A. Nolan

88'

J. Henry-Francis↳ K. McInroy

90+3'

Fiacre Kelleher

90+4'

C. Hanover← C. Lyons

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorkShelbourne

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots14

6Corners7

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked6

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

342Total Passes510

247Accurate Passes419

72%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1