Shelbourne 1–0 Cobh Ramblers: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cobh Ramblers

R. Brennan 32'

5/24/2019

First Division · Round 14Tolka Park (Dublin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Shelbourne55%

×Draw23%

Cobh Ramblers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchCobh Ramblers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.00

Shelbourne

1.77

Cobh Ramblers

1.00

Shelbourne creates 77% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 118 away

1.85

creates per match

1.22

0.78

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.85

Cobh Ramblers

1.22

allows per match

Shelbourne

0.78

Cobh Ramblers

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Cobh Ramblers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

79%

Shelbourne or Cobh Ramblers

77%

Draw or Cobh Ramblers

45%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

31%

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

83%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

53%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

26%

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

63%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

26%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

72%

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.70 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.85 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.22 + Shelbourne defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shelbourne scores more

55%

level

23%

Cobh Ramblers scores more

21%

Shelbourne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

R. Brennan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff