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Cobh Ramblers vs Shelbourne — First Division 2026

Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
M. Lamb 90'
8/3/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 23St. Coleman's Park (Cobh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cobh Ramblers29%
×Draw25%
Shelbourne46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobh Ramblers
1.16
Shelbourne
1.52

Shelbourne creates 31% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cobh Ramblers
1.47
Shelbourne
1.64

allows per match

Cobh Ramblers
1.41
Shelbourne
0.84

finishing

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par
Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobh Ramblers ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cobh Ramblers or draw
54%
Cobh Ramblers or Shelbourne
75%
Draw or Shelbourne
71%

Winning margin

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+
12%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals
69%
Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals
32%
Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals
11%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
78%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
45%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)
39%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobh Ramblers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.41 · 117 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.47 + Shelbourne defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shelbourne attack 1.64 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cobh Ramblers scores more
29%
level
25%
Shelbourne scores more
46%

Shelbourne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
K. Taylor
59'
J. Kabia
61'
S. Farrell
66'
D. McKenna
74'
C. Fleming
84'
A. Cronin
90'
M. Lamb

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cobh Ramblers vs Shelbourne

Cobh Ramblers beat Shelbourne 1-0 in First Division on August 3, 2019.

Goals: M. Lamb (90').

The match was played at St. Coleman's Park (Cobh).