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Sheikh Russel vs Abahani Chittagong — Premier League 2019

Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
5/17/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Bashundhara Kings Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sheikh Russel47%
×Draw24%
Abahani Chittagong29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheikh Russel
1.67
Abahani Chittagong
1.26

Sheikh Russel creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 67 away

creates per match

Sheikh Russel
1.65
Abahani Chittagong
1.33

allows per match

Sheikh Russel
1.19
Abahani Chittagong
1.69

finishing

Sheikh Russel+0.00on par
Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Russel ↓

Abahani Chittagong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sheikh Russel or draw
71%
Sheikh Russel or Abahani Chittagong
76%
Draw or Abahani Chittagong
53%

Winning margin

Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
25%
Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
81%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
50%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
23%
Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
72%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
36%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
62%
Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Russel at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Russel attack 1.65 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sheikh Russel scores more
47%
level
24%
Abahani Chittagong scores more
29%

Sheikh Russel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sheikh Russel 1–1 Abahani Chittagong

Sheikh Russel and Abahani Chittagong drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Bashundhara Kings Arena in Dhaka.