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Abahani Chittagong vs Sheikh Russel — Premier League 2019

Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
12/23/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Abahani Chittagong32%
×Draw25%
Sheikh Russel42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani Chittagong
1.26
Sheikh Russel
1.48

Sheikh Russel creates 17% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.20
Sheikh Russel
1.35

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.60
Sheikh Russel
1.32

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw
58%
Abahani Chittagong or Sheikh Russel
75%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
68%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
14%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
72%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
36%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
13%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
77%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
43%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
43%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 65 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.20 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sheikh Russel attack 1.35 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more
32%
level
25%
Sheikh Russel scores more
42%

Sheikh Russel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abahani Chittagong vs Sheikh Russel

Sheikh Russel beat Abahani Chittagong 4-2 in Premier League on December 23, 2022.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.