Sheikh Jamal 2–2 Bangladesh Police: Result & Stats

Sheikh Jamal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bangladesh Police

4/6/2024

Premier League · Round 11Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sheikh Jamal39%

×Draw26%

Bangladesh Police35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheikh JamalExpected goals in this matchBangladesh Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.30

Sheikh Jamal

1.38

Bangladesh Police

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 62 away

1.51

creates per match

1.21

1.40

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sheikh Jamal

1.51

Bangladesh Police

1.21

allows per match

Sheikh Jamal

1.40

Bangladesh Police

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Bangladesh Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Jamal ↓

Bangladesh Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheikh Jamal or draw

65%

Sheikh Jamal or Bangladesh Police

74%

Draw or Bangladesh Police

61%

Winning margin

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+

18%

Bangladesh Police wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals

75%

Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals

40%

Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals

16%

Bangladesh Police 1+ goals

73%

Bangladesh Police 2+ goals

37%

Bangladesh Police 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)

52%

Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Jamal at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Bangladesh Police away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.51 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bangladesh Police attack 1.21 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheikh Jamal scores more

39%

level

26%

Bangladesh Police scores more

35%

Sheikh Jamal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff