Bangladesh Police 0–1 Sheikh Jamal: Result & Stats

Bangladesh Police

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheikh Jamal

12/30/2023

Premier League · Round 2Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bangladesh Police38%

×Draw26%

Sheikh Jamal37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangladesh PoliceExpected goals in this matchSheikh Jamal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.37

Bangladesh Police

1.39

Sheikh Jamal

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 56 away

1.40

creates per match

1.45

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bangladesh Police

1.40

Sheikh Jamal

1.45

allows per match

Bangladesh Police

1.29

Sheikh Jamal

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangladesh Police+0.00on par

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh Police ↓

Sheikh Jamal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bangladesh Police or draw

63%

Bangladesh Police or Sheikh Jamal

74%

Draw or Sheikh Jamal

62%

Winning margin

Bangladesh Police wins by 2+

17%

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bangladesh Police 1+ goals

75%

Bangladesh Police 2+ goals

40%

Bangladesh Police 3+ goals

16%

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals

75%

Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals

40%

Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)

51%

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh Police at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 63 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh Police attack 1.40 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bangladesh Police scores more

38%

level

26%

Sheikh Jamal scores more

37%

Bangladesh Police at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bangladesh Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff