Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

J. Yates 54'

V. Semedo 90'

3/10/2026

Championship · Round 37Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday29%

×Draw25%

Watford46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.52

Sheffield Wednesday

1.16

Watford

1.52

Watford creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 52 away

0.73

creates per match

1.04

2.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

0.73

Watford

1.04

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.00

Watford

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

54%

Sheffield Wednesday or Watford

75%

Draw or Watford

71%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

12%

Watford wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

69%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

32%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

11%

Watford 1+ goals

78%

Watford 2+ goals

45%

Watford 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

39%

Watford (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.73 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Watford attack 1.04 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

29%

level

25%

Watford scores more

46%

Watford at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Louza

Watford · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

31'

54'

63'

65'

65'

68'

69'

74'

75'

76'

81'

84'

T. Ince← G. Chakvetadze

84'

V. Semedo← N. Irankunda

90'

V. Semedo↳ I. Louza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldWatford

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots19

1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.96

5Corners5

16Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots19

4On Target5

3Off Target5

4Blocked9

10Inside Box12

1Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

293Total Passes575

202Accurate Passes492

69%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.29Goals Prevented0.29

Discipline

16Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0