Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

1/31/2024

Championship · Round 29Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday29%

×Draw24%

Watford47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.64

Sheffield Wednesday

1.23

Watford

1.64

Watford creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

1.14

creates per match

1.10

2.18

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.14

Watford

1.10

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.18

Watford

1.32

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.31scores less

Watford+0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

53%

Sheffield Wednesday or Watford

76%

Draw or Watford

71%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

12%

Watford wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

35%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

13%

Watford 1+ goals

81%

Watford 2+ goals

49%

Watford 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

38%

Watford (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.18 · 6 matches

Watford away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.14 + Watford defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Watford attack 1.10 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

29%

level

24%

Watford scores more

47%

Watford at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Bannan

Sheffield Wednesday · M

8.3

Match Events

25'

29'

39'

42'

46'

46'

Y. Asprilla← Matheus Martins

71'

B. Cadamarteri← I. Ugbo

73'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

74'

K. Sema← J. Lewis

75'

Barry Bannan

76'

Matthew Pollock

82'

R. Porteous← M. Pollock

85'

E. Dennis← G. Chakvetadze

86'

M. Diaby← B. Bannan

90'

Ben Hamer

90+3'

M. Wilks← A. Musaba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldWatford

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots10

1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.00

5Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots10

5On Target2

6Off Target5

8Blocked3

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

477Total Passes321

401Accurate Passes240

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2