Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

A. Segecic 65'

1/17/2026

Championship · Round 27Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday39%

×Draw26%

Portsmouth36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.33

Sheffield Wednesday

1.40

Portsmouth

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

1.25

creates per match

0.85

1.82

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.25

Portsmouth

0.85

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.82

Portsmouth

1.55

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.25scores less

Portsmouth+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

64%

Sheffield Wednesday or Portsmouth

74%

Draw or Portsmouth

61%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

18%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

75%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

41%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

17%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

74%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

38%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

52%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.55 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.25 + Portsmouth defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portsmouth attack 0.85 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

39%

level

26%

Portsmouth scores more

36%

Sheffield Wednesday at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Segecic

Portsmouth · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

56'

63'

63'

63'

J. Heskey← J. Thornton

65'

A. Segecic

73'

J. Williams← M. Alli

76'

N. Redmond← L. Palmer

77'

Conor Chaplin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldPortsmouth

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots12

0.33Expected Goals (xG)1.65

7Corners6

15Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots12

1On Target3

3Off Target5

3Blocked4

7Inside Box10

0Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

344Total Passes394

259Accurate Passes311

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.16Goals Prevented0.16

Discipline

15Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3