Portsmouth 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Wednesday

G. Brown 50'

B. Bannan 12'

9/20/2025

Championship · Round 6Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portsmouth53%

×Draw24%

Sheffield Wednesday22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.98

Portsmouth

1.67

Sheffield Wednesday

0.98

Portsmouth creates 70% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

0.81

1.15

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.45

Sheffield Wednesday

0.81

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.15

Sheffield Wednesday

1.90

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Portsmouth-0.38scores less

Sheffield Wednesday+0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

78%

Portsmouth or Sheffield Wednesday

76%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

47%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

29%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

81%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

50%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

23%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

62%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

26%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

71%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.15 · 29 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.90 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.45 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.81 + Portsmouth defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portsmouth scores more

53%

level

24%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

22%

Portsmouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Bannan

Sheffield Wednesday · M

9.5

Match Events

12'

17'

45'

45'

46'

J. Knight← Z. Swanson

46'

L. Le Roux← J. Swift

50'

G. Brown↳ Y. Valery

52'

H. Matthews← C. Shaughnessy

62'

Ethan Horvath

65'

Dominic Iorfa

66'

J. Lowe← G. Brown

67'

M. Kirk← A. Segecic

75'

M. Kosznovszky← A. Dozzell

79'

Max Lowe

86'

S. Fusire← S. Ingelsson

89'

I. Ugbo← B. Cadamarteri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthSheffield

Overview

70%Possession30%

25Total Shots13

1.74Expected Goals (xG)1.07

11Corners5

5Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots13

5On Target8

6Off Target1

14Blocked4

19Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

494Total Passes220

387Accurate Passes125

78%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

5Fouls10

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1