Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Oxford United

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oxford United

S. Long 79'

4/12/2025

Championship · Round 42Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday42%

×Draw26%

Oxford United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Sheffield Wednesday

1.44

Oxford United

1.23

Sheffield Wednesday creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 37 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

1.50

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.24

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.50

Oxford United

1.65

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.28scores less

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

68%

Sheffield Wednesday or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

58%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

20%

Oxford United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

76%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

42%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

18%

Oxford United 1+ goals

71%

Oxford United 2+ goals

35%

Oxford United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

57%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.50 · 49 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.24 + Oxford United defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

42%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

32%

Sheffield Wednesday at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Famewo

Sheffield Wednesday · D

8.2

Match Events

56'

S. Ingelsson← S. Armstrong

56'

C. McNeill← A. Musaba

64'

Pol Valentín← Y. Valery

64'

M. Phillips← S. Mills

64'

Ruben Rodrigues← A. Matos

64'

M. Harris← T. Bradshaw

74'

Mark Harris

78'

P. Płacheta← T. Goodrham

79'

S. Long

83'

Josh Windass

84'

I. Cissoko← C. Paterson

84'

I. Ugbo← D. Gassama

90+2'

Matt Phillips

90+2'

G. Leigh← J. Bennett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldOxford

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots13

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.11

4Corners5

6Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots13

2On Target5

8Off Target6

5Blocked2

8Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

459Total Passes255

384Accurate Passes175

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.23Goals Prevented0.23

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1