Oxford United 1–3 Sheffield Wednesday

Oxford United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Wednesday

G. Leigh 17'

D. Gassama 61'

J. Lowe 49'

J. Windass 28'

12/14/2024

Championship · Round 21The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Oxford United46%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Wednesday27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Oxford United

1.39

Sheffield Wednesday

0.99

Oxford United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 48 away

1.17

creates per match

0.78

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Oxford United

1.17

Sheffield Wednesday

0.78

allows per match

Oxford United

1.21

Sheffield Wednesday

1.60

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Oxford United+0.12scores more

Sheffield Wednesday+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

73%

Oxford United or Sheffield Wednesday

73%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

54%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

22%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

75%

Oxford United 2+ goals

40%

Oxford United 3+ goals

16%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

63%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

26%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

63%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.17 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.78 + Oxford United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oxford United scores more

46%

level

27%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

27%

Oxford United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

D. Gassama

Sheffield Wednesday · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

G. Leigh↳ E. Moore

28'

J. Windass

49'

J. Lowe

59'

A. Musaba← J. Windass

59'

Pol Valentín← J. Lowe

61'

D. Gassama↳ M. Smith

72'

Djeidi Gassama

72'

M. Harris← Ruben Rodrigues

72'

W. Vaulks← I. El Mizouni

72'

M. Phillips← O. Dale

73'

S. Ingelsson← D. Gassama

73'

D. Iorfa← Y. Valery

80'

K. Edwards← T. Goodrham

89'

I. Ugbo← M. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordSheffield

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots15

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.87

7Corners11

9Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target9

1Off Target4

5Blocked2

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

454Total Passes422

375Accurate Passes349

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

0.71Goals Prevented0.71

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3