Sheffield Wednesday 0–4 Millwall: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Millwall

11/11/2023

Championship · Round 16Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday32%

×Draw25%

Millwall43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.57

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Millwall

1.57

Millwall creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 32 away

1.27

creates per match

1.40

1.74

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.27

Millwall

1.40

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.74

Millwall

1.34

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.27scores less

Millwall-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

57%

Sheffield Wednesday or Millwall

75%

Draw or Millwall

68%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

14%

Millwall wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

79%

Millwall 2+ goals

46%

Millwall 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

42%

Millwall (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.74 · 18 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.27 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.40 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

32%

level

25%

Millwall scores more

43%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff