Millwall 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

F. Azeez 71'

11/26/2025

Championship · Round 17The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall61%

×Draw22%

Sheffield Wednesday16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.82

Millwall

1.83

Sheffield Wednesday

0.82

Millwall creates 123% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

1.49

creates per match

0.70

0.94

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Millwall

1.49

Sheffield Wednesday

0.70

allows per match

Millwall

0.94

Sheffield Wednesday

2.17

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Millwall+0.01on par

Sheffield Wednesday-0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

84%

Millwall or Sheffield Wednesday

78%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

39%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

36%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

84%

Millwall 2+ goals

54%

Millwall 3+ goals

28%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

56%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

20%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

79%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.94 · 24 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.17 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.49 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.70 + Millwall defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Millwall scores more

61%

level

22%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

16%

Millwall at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

T. Crama

Millwall · D

8.6

Match Events

42'

Liam Cooper

45+1'

Dominic Iorfa

61'

F. Azeez← T. Ballo

61'

R. Bangura-Williams← C. Neghli

71'

F. Azeez↳ A. Doughty

72'

D. McNamara← A. Doughty

73'

J. Lowe← S. Ingelsson

79'

L. Palmer← L. Cooper

87'

D. Kelly← A. Emakhu

87'

M. Langstaff← M. Ivanovic

88'

Barry Bannan

90'

R. Johnson← H. Amass

90'

J. Thornton← S. Fusire

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallSheffield

Overview

55%Possession45%

24Total Shots11

2.45Expected Goals (xG)0.70

9Corners5

7Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots11

8On Target3

10Off Target5

6Blocked3

20Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

429Total Passes372

318Accurate Passes264

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.39Goals Prevented0.39

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0