Millwall 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

J. Cooper 88'

D. Watmore 71'

J. Coburn 58'

8/31/2024

Championship · Round 4The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Millwall60%

×Draw23%

Sheffield Wednesday17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.84

Millwall

1.79

Sheffield Wednesday

0.84

Millwall creates 113% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

0.76

0.92

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Millwall

1.47

Sheffield Wednesday

0.76

allows per match

Millwall

0.92

Sheffield Wednesday

2.10

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.02on par

Sheffield Wednesday-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

83%

Millwall or Sheffield Wednesday

77%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

40%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

34%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

83%

Millwall 2+ goals

53%

Millwall 3+ goals

26%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

57%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

21%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

78%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.92 · 29 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.10 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.47 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.76 + Millwall defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Millwall scores more

60%

level

23%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

17%

Millwall at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Cooper

Millwall · D

7.9

Match Events

43'

Japhet Tanganga

58'

J. Coburn

60'

Barry Bannan

62'

M. Smith← I. Ugbo

62'

J. Windass← J. Lowe

62'

O. Kobacki← D. Gassama

71'

D. Watmore

78'

M. Langstaff← J. Coburn

82'

Romain Esse

83'

Pol Valentín← A. Musaba

83'

S. Ingelsson← S. Charles

85'

R. Wintle← D. Watmore

85'

O. Azeez← R. Esse

88'

J. Cooper↳ C. De Norre

90+2'

A. Emakhu← G. Honeyman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallSheffield

Overview

39%Possession61%

18Total Shots4

2.78Expected Goals (xG)0.16

6Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots4

4On Target1

7Off Target1

7Blocked2

12Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

301Total Passes471

203Accurate Passes381

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

0.04Goals Prevented0.04

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1