Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

11/7/2020

Championship · Round 11Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday36%

×Draw26%

Millwall37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

Sheffield Wednesday

1.28

Millwall

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 62 away

1.24

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.24

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.50

Millwall

1.32

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.28scores less

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

63%

Sheffield Wednesday or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

64%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

49%

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.50 · 49 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.24 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Millwall attack 1.12 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

36%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

B. Bialkowski

Millwall · G

8.7

Match Events

58'

I. Brown← J. Pelupessy

65'

Joost van Aken

68'

C. Paterson← E. Kachunga

68'

C. Mahoney← J. Wallace

80'

J. Marriott← J. van Aken

82'

T. Bradshaw← M. Smith

82'

J. Böðvarsson← M. Bennett

90'

Isaiah Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldMillwall

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots11

5Corners4

10Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target0

5Off Target9

3Blocked2

8Inside Box9

7Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

508Total Passes323

388Accurate Passes208

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2