Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Middlesbrough

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Middlesbrough

A. Musaba 89'

J. Windass 54'

F. Azaz 11'

4/21/2025

Championship · Round 44Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday30%

×Draw24%

Middlesbrough46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.72

Sheffield Wednesday

1.35

Middlesbrough

1.72

Middlesbrough creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

1.35

creates per match

1.58

1.85

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.35

Middlesbrough

1.58

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.85

Middlesbrough

1.34

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.22scores less

Middlesbrough-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

54%

Sheffield Wednesday or Middlesbrough

76%

Draw or Middlesbrough

70%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

13%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

74%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

39%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

15%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

82%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

51%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

40%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.34 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.35 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Middlesbrough attack 1.58 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

30%

level

24%

Middlesbrough scores more

46%

Middlesbrough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

P. Charles

Sheffield Wednesday · G

8.5

Match Events

11'

F. Azaz↳ H. Hackney

13'

Michael Smith

21'

Svante Ingelsson

22'

Tommy ConwayMissed penalty

36'

Hayden Hackney

46'

A. Musaba← D. Gassama

51'

Callum Paterson

54'

J. Windass↳ S. Ingelsson

55'

Mark Travers

64'

S. Armstrong← S. Ingelsson

67'

D. Burgzorg← M. Forss

69'

Rav van den Berg

77'

D. Fry← M. Whittaker

84'

Finn Azaz

86'

L. Palmer← G. Otegbayo

89'

A. Musaba

90+3'

N. Chalobah← B. Bannan

90+1'

K. Ịheanachọ← J. Howson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldMiddlesbrough

Overview

45%Possession55%

25Total Shots16

3.56Expected Goals (xG)2.12

5Corners6

15Fouls9

Shots

25Total Shots16

11On Target5

11Off Target5

3Blocked6

19Inside Box12

6Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

353Total Passes440

288Accurate Passes377

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

1.45Goals Prevented1.45

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0