Middlesbrough 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

M. Whittaker 11'

4/22/2026

Championship · Round 44Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Middlesbrough62%

×Draw23%

Sheffield Wednesday15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.73

Middlesbrough

1.77

Sheffield Wednesday

0.73

Middlesbrough creates 142% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.63

creates per match

0.76

0.70

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.63

Sheffield Wednesday

0.76

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.70

Sheffield Wednesday

1.92

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.01on par

Sheffield Wednesday-0.07on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

85%

Middlesbrough or Sheffield Wednesday

77%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

38%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

36%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

83%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

53%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

26%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

52%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

17%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

81%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 21 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.92 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.63 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.76 + Middlesbrough defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

62%

level

23%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

15%

Middlesbrough at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Brittain

Middlesbrough · D

8.5

Match Events

11'

30'

51'

52'

60'

J. Sarmiento← M. Whittaker

62'

N. Chalobah← M. Nakamba

62'

J. Lowe← C. McNeill

68'

W. Grainger← J. Thornton

70'

Max Lowe

78'

M. K. Sene← T. Conway

78'

S. Silvera← D. Strelec

81'

A. Bangura← M. Targett

83'

O. Kobacki← J. Yates

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughSheffield

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots8

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.51

9Corners1

10Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots8

4On Target1

8Off Target5

6Blocked2

15Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

578Total Passes364

497Accurate Passes286

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

10Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2