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Sheffield Wednesday vs Luton — League One 2018

Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
Preview
15:00
Luton
Luton
12/19/2026League OneLeague One · Round 20Hillsborough
Big match
50%
Sheffield Wednesday
model favours
50%25%25%

Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday50%
×Draw25%
Luton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Wednesday
1.64
Luton
1.09

Sheffield Wednesday creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday
2.04
Luton
1.45

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday
0.73
Luton
1.23

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par
Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw
75%
Sheffield Wednesday or Luton
75%
Draw or Luton
50%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
27%
Luton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
81%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
49%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
23%
Luton 1+ goals
66%
Luton 2+ goals
30%
Luton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
66%
Luton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.64

Luton attack 1.45 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more
50%
level
25%
Luton scores more
25%

Sheffield Wednesday at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Luton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Wednesday
Balanced
Luton
Possession-dominant
50%PossessionBiggest gap55%
69%Pass accuracy76%
12.8Shots12.8
—xG1.60
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield WednesdayLuton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
4
Luton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–11–22–30–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wednesday
WDLWL
Luton
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sheffield Wednesday host Luton

December 19, 2026: Sheffield Wednesday take on Luton in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sheffield Wednesday host Luton at Hillsborough.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.