Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Luton: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

P. Ruddock 74'

10/24/2020

Championship · Round 7Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday43%

×Draw26%

Luton32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.21

Sheffield Wednesday

1.45

Luton

1.21

Sheffield Wednesday creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

1.57

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.57

Luton

1.59

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.29scores less

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

68%

Sheffield Wednesday or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

57%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

21%

Luton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

42%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

70%

Luton 2+ goals

34%

Luton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

57%

Luton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.31 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Luton attack 0.85 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

43%

level

26%

Luton scores more

32%

Sheffield Wednesday at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Bannan

Sheffield Wednesday · M

8.0

Match Events

60'

Moses Odubajo

65'

J. Windass← C. Paterson

69'

K. LuaLua← E. Lee

71'

Joost van Aken

74'

P. Ruddock

75'

J. Börner← J. Marriott

80'

J. Rhodes← J. Pelupessy

90'

Martin Cranie

90+2'

R. Tunnicliffe← J. Morrell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldLuton

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots7

4Corners2

16Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target2

6Off Target4

5Blocked1

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

453Total Passes415

357Accurate Passes327

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2