Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Luton: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

M. Smith 60' (pen)

A. Doughty 31'

2/1/2025

Championship · Round 30Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday44%

×Draw26%

Luton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Sheffield Wednesday

1.49

Luton

1.21

Sheffield Wednesday creates 23% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

1.57

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.57

Luton

1.67

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.29scores less

Luton-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

69%

Sheffield Wednesday or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

56%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

21%

Luton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

19%

Luton 1+ goals

70%

Luton 2+ goals

34%

Luton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

59%

Luton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.31 + Luton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Luton attack 0.85 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

44%

level

26%

Luton scores more

31%

Sheffield Wednesday at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

D. Gassama

Sheffield Wednesday · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

A. Doughty↳ C. Morris

46'

S. Armstrong← J. Lowe

46'

M. Smith← C. Paterson

60'

M. SmithPenalty

64'

J. Bowler← J. Brown

67'

Thomas Kaminski

72'

D. Hashioka← R. Walters

72'

M. Alli← A. Doughty

75'

Di'Shon Bernard

81'

M. Johnson← D. Bernard

87'

K. Naismith← T. Aasgaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldLuton

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots8

2.78Expected Goals (xG)0.43

9Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots8

4On Target1

6Off Target3

7Blocked4

13Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

511Total Passes243

433Accurate Passes160

85%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1