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Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
15:00
Wrexham
Wrexham
10/31/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Bramall Lane
Big match
55%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
55%24%21%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sheffield Utd55%
×Draw24%
Wrexham21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.68
Wrexham
0.94

Sheffield Utd creates 79% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.73
Wrexham
0.86

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.01
Wrexham
1.62

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less
Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
79%
Sheffield Utd or Wrexham
76%
Draw or Wrexham
45%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
30%
Wrexham wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
81%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
50%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
24%
Wrexham 1+ goals
61%
Wrexham 2+ goals
24%
Wrexham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
72%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
55%
level
24%
Wrexham scores more
21%

Sheffield Utd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5.4 goals
  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
Wrexham
Balanced
53%Possession48%
78%Pass accuracy78%
13.3Shots11.1
1.53xGBiggest gap1.20
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield UtdWrexham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
2
Wrexham
Avg goals: 5.4BTTS: 100%
1–23–54–23–13–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Utd
WWDWW
Wrexham
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sheffield Utd face Wrexham (Championship)

Championship returns with Sheffield Utd hosting Wrexham. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sheffield Utd host Wrexham at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.