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Sheffield Utd vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
12/14/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sheffield Utd44%
×Draw26%
West Brom30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.42
West Brom
1.12

Sheffield Utd creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.62
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.05
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.31scores less
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
70%
Sheffield Utd or West Brom
74%
Draw or West Brom
56%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
21%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
76%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
41%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
17%
West Brom 1+ goals
67%
West Brom 2+ goals
31%
West Brom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
60%
West Brom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.62 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

West Brom attack 1.19 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
44%
level
26%
West Brom scores more
30%

Sheffield Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Sheffield Utd 1–2 West Brom

West Brom beat Sheffield Utd 2-1 in Championship on December 14, 2018.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.