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Sheffield Utd vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
19:45
Swansea
Swansea
3/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Bramall Lane
Big match
50%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
50%25%25%

Swansea score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 48+ matches

Sheffield Utd50%
×Draw25%
Swansea25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.60
Swansea
1.04

Sheffield Utd creates 54% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.68
Swansea
1.09

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.00
Swansea
1.53

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.12scores less
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
75%
Sheffield Utd or Swansea
75%
Draw or Swansea
50%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
26%
Swansea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
80%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
47%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
22%
Swansea 1+ goals
65%
Swansea 2+ goals
28%
Swansea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
67%
Swansea (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.68 + Swansea defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Swansea attack 1.09 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
50%
level
25%
Swansea scores more
25%

Sheffield Utd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Swansea’s matches
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
Swansea
Balanced
53%Possession58%
78%Pass accuracy81%
13.1Shots12.1
1.49xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield UtdSwansea

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

5
Sheffield Utd
2
Draws
2
Swansea
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 22%
3–30–12–11–03–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Utd
WWDWW
Swansea
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sheffield Utd face Swansea (Championship)

Championship returns with Sheffield Utd hosting Swansea. Match starts March 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sheffield Utd host Swansea at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.