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Sheffield Utd vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
19:45
Southampton
Southampton
11/24/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Bramall Lane
Big match
44%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
44%25%31%

Southampton score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Sheffield Utd44%
×Draw25%
Southampton31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.54
Southampton
1.27

Sheffield Utd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.73
Southampton
1.52

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.01
Southampton
1.34

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less
Southampton+0.06on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
69%
Sheffield Utd or Southampton
75%
Draw or Southampton
56%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
22%
Southampton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
79%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
45%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
20%
Southampton 1+ goals
72%
Southampton 2+ goals
36%
Southampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
58%
Southampton (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.34 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Southampton defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Southampton attack 1.52 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
44%
level
25%
Southampton scores more
31%

Sheffield Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 13 games running
  • 82% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Style contrast — Sheffield Utd play Attack-heavy, Southampton Possession-dominant
  • Southampton have won 6 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
Southampton
Possession-dominant
53%PossessionBiggest gap60%
78%Pass accuracy86%
13.3Shots14.3
1.53xG1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield UtdSouthampton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
6
Southampton
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 33%
0–11–20–20–31–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Utd
WWDWW
Southampton
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sheffield Utd face Southampton (Championship)

Championship returns with Sheffield Utd hosting Southampton. Match starts November 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sheffield Utd host Southampton at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.