Sheffield Utd 0–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

C. Adams 49'

J. Ward-Prowse 32' (pen)

3/6/2021

Premier League · Round 27Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sheffield Utd42%

×Draw24%

Southampton34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.49

Sheffield Utd

1.67

Southampton

1.49

Sheffield Utd creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.92

2.07

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.33

Southampton

0.92

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.07

Southampton

2.01

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.44scores less

Southampton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

66%

Sheffield Utd or Southampton

76%

Draw or Southampton

58%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

22%

Southampton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

81%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

50%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

23%

Southampton 1+ goals

77%

Southampton 2+ goals

44%

Southampton 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

55%

Southampton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.33 + Southampton defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Southampton attack 0.92 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

42%

level

24%

Southampton scores more

34%

Sheffield Utd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Fleck

Sheffield Utd · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

C. Adams← D. Ings

31'

Ethan Ampadu

32'

J. Ward-ProwsePenalty

36'

Jayden Bogle

46'

O. McBurnie← O. Norwood

49'

C. Adams↳ S. Armstrong

58'

L. Mousset← D. McGoldrick

59'

Nathan Tella

68'

B. Sharp← R. Brewster

71'

Stuart Armstrong

77'

N. Redmond← N. Tella

88'

M. Djenepo← T. Minamino

90'

Oliver McBurnie

90'

John Fleck

90'

Jannik Vestergaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldSouthampton

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots15

7Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots15

2On Target7

5Off Target4

1Blocked4

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

393Total Passes390

275Accurate Passes294

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Southampton

Southampton beat Sheffield Utd 2-0 in Premier League on March 6, 2021.

Goals: J. Ward-Prowse (32' pen), C. Adams (49').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Southampton