Sheffield Utd 1–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Southampton

T. Campbell 28'

R. Stewart 58', 51'

9/30/2025

Championship · Round 8Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Utd43%

×Draw25%

Southampton32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.52

Southampton

1.29

Sheffield Utd creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

1.71

creates per match

1.54

1.03

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.71

Southampton

1.54

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.03

Southampton

1.33

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.13scores less

Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

68%

Sheffield Utd or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

57%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

21%

Southampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

45%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

20%

Southampton 1+ goals

72%

Southampton 2+ goals

37%

Southampton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

57%

Southampton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.03 · 45 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.71 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Southampton attack 1.54 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

43%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

32%

Sheffield Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Stewart

Southampton · F

8.3

Match Events

28'

T. Campbell↳ G. Hamer

36'

37'

45+4'

46'

46'

R. Fraser← T. Fellows

46'

J. Robinson← F. Azaz

51'

R. Stewart

58'

R. Stewart↳ J. Robinson

67'

Adam Armstrong

70'

A. Matos← T. Davies

71'

T. Cannon← T. Campbell

75'

M. Roerslev Rasmussen← R. Manning

75'

F. Downes← A. Armstrong

82'

F. Seriki← C. Ogbene

83'

D. Ings← B. Mee

85'

S. McCallum← H. Burrows

85'

C. Archer← R. Stewart

90+1'

Sydie Peck

90+5'

Nathan Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldSouthampton

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots12

0.90Expected Goals (xG)2.02

4Corners5

14Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target5

2Off Target5

3Blocked2

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

430Total Passes471

346Accurate Passes384

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.21Goals Prevented0.21

Discipline

14Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2