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Sheffield Utd vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Southampton
Southampton
9/14/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sheffield Utd41%
×Draw23%
Southampton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.69
Southampton
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.28
Southampton
0.95

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
2.15
Southampton
2.11

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.38scores less
Southampton-0.12scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
65%
Sheffield Utd or Southampton
77%
Draw or Southampton
59%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
21%
Southampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
82%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
50%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
24%
Southampton 1+ goals
79%
Southampton 2+ goals
46%
Southampton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
54%
Southampton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.15 · 10 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.11 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.28 + Southampton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Southampton attack 0.95 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
41%
level
23%
Southampton scores more
35%

Sheffield Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sheffield Utd 0–1 Southampton

Southampton beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 in Premier League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.