Sheffield Utd 2–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

K. Moore 88' (pen)

G. Hamer 19'

12/14/2024

Championship · Round 21Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Sheffield Utd61%

×Draw22%

Plymouth16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.83

Sheffield Utd

1.84

Plymouth

0.83

Sheffield Utd creates 122% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 23 away

1.76

creates per match

0.66

1.00

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.76

Plymouth

0.66

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.00

Plymouth

1.93

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.17scores less

Plymouth-0.01on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

84%

Sheffield Utd or Plymouth

78%

Draw or Plymouth

39%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

36%

Plymouth wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

84%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

55%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

28%

Plymouth 1+ goals

56%

Plymouth 2+ goals

20%

Plymouth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

79%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.93 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.76 + Plymouth defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Plymouth attack 0.66 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

61%

level

22%

Plymouth scores more

16%

Sheffield Utd at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Hamer

Sheffield Utd · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

G. Hamer

52'

S. McCallum← H. Burrows

52'

J. Shackleton← J. Rak-Sakyi

53'

K. Moore← R. Oné

60'

68'

74'

75'

80'

C. Wright← M. Obafemi

80'

F. Issaka← M. Bundu

86'

R. Brewster← C. OHare

88'

K. MoorePenalty

89'

R. Norrington-Davies← T. Davies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldPlymouth

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots12

1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.08

2Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target4

4Off Target5

3Blocked3

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

325Total Passes555

234Accurate Passes479

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides5

Championship: Sheffield Utd 2–0 Plymouth

Sheffield Utd beat Plymouth 2-0 in Championship on December 14, 2024.

Goals: G. Hamer (19'), K. Moore (88' pen).

Plymouth controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Plymouth — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sheffield Utd 2–0 Plymouth