Plymouth 2–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Utd

M. Tijani 88'

R. Hardie 81'

J. Rak-Sakyi 44'

4/12/2025

Championship · Round 42Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Plymouth34%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Utd40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.44

Plymouth

1.30

Sheffield Utd

1.44

Sheffield Utd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 39 away

1.42

creates per match

1.36

1.51

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Plymouth

1.42

Sheffield Utd

1.36

allows per match

Plymouth

1.51

Sheffield Utd

1.18

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth+0.62scores more

Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

60%

Plymouth or Sheffield Utd

74%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

66%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

15%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

73%

Plymouth 2+ goals

37%

Plymouth 3+ goals

14%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

76%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

42%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

46%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 24 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.42 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Plymouth defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Plymouth scores more

34%

level

26%

Sheffield Utd scores more

40%

Sheffield Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Hardie

Plymouth · F

7.5

Match Events

44'

J. Rak-Sakyi↳ G. Hamer

46'

J. Edwards← N. Ogbeta

64'

Harry Clarke

64'

M. Tijani← C. Wright

67'

B. Brereton← J. Rak-Sakyi

68'

K. Moore← T. Cannon

68'

F. Seriki← H. Clarke

80'

H. Choudhury← Vinicius Souza

81'

R. Hardie↳ J. Edwards

84'

88'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthSheffield

Overview

30%Possession70%

8Total Shots8

0.83Expected Goals (xG)0.63

3Corners9

9Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots8

3On Target3

2Off Target5

3Blocked0

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box1

Passing

30%Possession70%

203Total Passes482

111Accurate Passes397

55%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-1.30Goals Prevented-1.30

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0