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Sheffield Utd vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Newcastle
Newcastle
1/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sheffield Utd28%
×Draw24%
Newcastle48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.24
Newcastle
1.71

Newcastle creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.28
Newcastle
1.27

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
2.15
Newcastle
1.20

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.38scores less
Newcastle-0.18scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Newcastle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
52%
Sheffield Utd or Newcastle
76%
Draw or Newcastle
72%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
11%
Newcastle wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
35%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
13%
Newcastle 1+ goals
82%
Newcastle 2+ goals
51%
Newcastle 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
37%
Newcastle (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.15 · 10 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.28 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Newcastle attack 1.27 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
28%
level
24%
Newcastle scores more
48%

Newcastle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sheffield Utd 1–0 Newcastle

Sheffield Utd beat Newcastle 1-0 in Premier League on January 12, 2021.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.