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Newcastle vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
6/21/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Newcastle60%
×Draw21%
Sheffield Utd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
2.01
Sheffield Utd
1.01

Newcastle creates 99% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.04
Sheffield Utd
0.66

allows per match

Newcastle
1.36
Sheffield Utd
1.98

finishing

Newcastle-0.17scores less
Sheffield Utd+0.04on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
82%
Newcastle or Sheffield Utd
79%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
40%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
36%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
87%
Newcastle 2+ goals
59%
Newcastle 3+ goals
32%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
64%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
27%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
77%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sheffield Utd attack 0.66 + Newcastle defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Newcastle scores more
60%
level
21%
Sheffield Utd scores more
18%

Newcastle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Newcastle 3–0 Sheffield Utd

Newcastle beat Sheffield Utd 3-0 in Premier League on June 21, 2020.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.