Sheffield Utd 3–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Middlesbrough

A. Ahmedhodžić 87'

B. Brereton 75'

J. Rak-Sakyi 32'

D. Burgzorg 45' (pen)

2/12/2025

Championship · Round 32Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Sheffield Utd44%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.19

Sheffield Utd

1.49

Middlesbrough

1.19

Sheffield Utd creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 63 away

1.75

creates per match

1.37

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.75

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.00

Middlesbrough

1.23

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.15scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

70%

Sheffield Utd or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

56%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

22%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

70%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

33%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

59%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.75 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.49

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

44%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

30%

Sheffield Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Rak-Sakyi

Sheffield Utd · M

8.0

Match Events

32'

34'

43'

43'

44'

45'

D. BurgzorgPenalty

46'

T. Campbell← T. Cannon

55'

D. Barlaser← F. Azaz

67'

B. Brereton← J. Rak-Sakyi

73'

Luke Ayling

73'

M. Whittaker← S. Iling-Junior

73'

T. Conway← K. Ịheanachọ

75'

B. Brereton↳ S. Peck

82'

S. McCallum← G. Hamer

87'

A. Ahmedhodžić↳ H. Burrows

89'

M. Forss← A. Morris

90'

H. Choudhury← S. Peck

90'

T. Davies← H. Burrows

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldMiddlesbrough

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots10

2.42Expected Goals (xG)1.25

10Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

9On Target4

4Off Target4

5Blocked2

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

406Total Passes387

323Accurate Passes292

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

-1.07Goals Prevented-1.07

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2