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Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
E. Latte Lath 80'
10/23/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Middlesbrough42%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.38
Sheffield Utd
1.15

Middlesbrough creates 20% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 40 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.56
Sheffield Utd
1.34

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
69%
Middlesbrough or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
58%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
20%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
75%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
40%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
16%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
68%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
57%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.96 · 65 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sheffield Utd attack 1.34 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
42%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
31%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
L. AylingMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · D
8.2

Match Events

62'
J. Shackleton← S. Peck
62'
G. Hamer← C. OHare
62'
R. Norrington-Davies← S. McCallum
75'
Gustavo Hamer
77'
E. Latte Lath← T. Conway
79'
T. Campbell← K. Moore
80'
E. Latte Lath↳ F. Azaz
87'
A. Brooks← A. Gilchrist
89'
J. Howson← R. McGree
89'
I. Jones← B. Doak
90+5'
M. Clarke← F. Azaz

Possession

54%Middlesbrough

Shots

18Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

50%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughSheffield
Overview
54%Possession46%
18Total Shots9
1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.41
8Corners6
7Fouls4
Shots
18Total Shots9
6On Target5
5Off Target2
7Blocked2
12Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
587Total Passes490
516Accurate Passes437
88%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
1.02Goals Prevented1.02
Discipline
7Fouls4
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Utd

Middlesbrough beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 in Championship on October 23, 2024.

Goals: E. Latte Lath (80').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.