Sheffield Utd 3–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ipswich

1/24/2026

Championship · Round 29Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Sheffield Utd39%

×Draw26%

Ipswich35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.36

Ipswich

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

1.53

1.04

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.64

Ipswich

1.53

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.04

Ipswich

1.09

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.47scores less

Ipswich-0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

65%

Sheffield Utd or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

61%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

18%

Ipswich wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

39%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

16%

Ipswich 1+ goals

72%

Ipswich 2+ goals

37%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

52%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.64 + Ipswich defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ipswich attack 1.53 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

39%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

35%

Sheffield Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff