Ipswich 1–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Utd

E. Harrison 38'

B. Sharp 47'

12/22/2018

Championship · Round 23Portman Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Ipswich48%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Utd27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Ipswich

1.52

Sheffield Utd

1.07

Ipswich creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.92

creates per match

1.38

0.76

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ipswich

1.92

Sheffield Utd

1.38

allows per match

Ipswich

0.76

Sheffield Utd

1.13

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.08on par

Sheffield Utd+0.05on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

73%

Ipswich or Sheffield Utd

74%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

52%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

24%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

78%

Ipswich 2+ goals

45%

Ipswich 3+ goals

20%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

66%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

29%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

64%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.76 · 28 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.92 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sheffield Utd attack 1.38 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ipswich scores more

48%

level

26%

Sheffield Utd scores more

27%

Ipswich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Sharp

Sheffield Utd · F

7.7

Match Events

38'

E. Harrison↳ F. Sears

40'

Trevoh Chalobah

47'

B. Sharp↳ O. Norwood

69'

G. Ward← A. Dozzell

69'

L. Clarke← D. McGoldrick

70'

Chris Basham

78'

J. Roberts← E. Harrison

84'

Oliver Norwood

90'

Jordan Spence

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichSheffield

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots16

6Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target3

3Off Target8

1Blocked5

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

305Total Passes507

162Accurate Passes361

53%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3