Sheffield Utd 1–4 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Bristol City

T. Campbell 14'

S. Twine 51', 5'

A. Mehmeti 46'

R. McCrorie 26'

8/9/2025

Championship · Round 1Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sheffield Utd50%

×Draw25%

Bristol City25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

Sheffield Utd

1.60

Bristol City

1.05

Sheffield Utd creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

1.84

creates per match

1.03

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.84

Bristol City

1.03

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.07

Bristol City

1.36

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.46scores less

Bristol City-0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

75%

Sheffield Utd or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

50%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

26%

Bristol City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

80%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

22%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

67%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.36 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.84 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bristol City attack 1.03 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

50%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

25%

Sheffield Utd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Twine

Bristol City · F

10.0

Match Events

5'

S. Twine

14'

T. Campbell↳ C. O'Hare

26'

R. McCrorie↳ S. Twine

46'

A. Mehmeti↳ E. Riis

51'

S. Twine↳ R. McCrorie

57'

J. Robinson← R. Norrington-Davies

57'

R. One← L. Barry

58'

T. Cannon← A. Brooks

70'

S. Bell← S. Twine

74'

S. McCallum← F. Seriki

75'

M. Sykes← Y. Hirakawa

83'

S. Armstrong← E. Riis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBristol

Overview

74%Possession26%

20Total Shots9

2.30Expected Goals (xG)1.30

14Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots9

6On Target5

6Off Target3

8Blocked1

12Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

587Total Passes207

505Accurate Passes138

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0.42Goals Prevented0.42

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Offsides2