Sheffield Utd 3–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

C. O'Hare 83'

G. Hamer 52'

K. Moore 41'

5/12/2025

Championship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsBramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sheffield Utd51%

×Draw25%

Bristol City24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.00

Sheffield Utd

1.57

Bristol City

1.00

Sheffield Utd creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

1.78

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.78

Bristol City

0.96

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.04

Bristol City

1.36

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.35scores less

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

76%

Sheffield Utd or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

49%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

26%

Bristol City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

79%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

46%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

21%

Bristol City 1+ goals

63%

Bristol City 2+ goals

26%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

68%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.04 · 7 matches

Bristol City away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.78 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bristol City attack 0.96 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

51%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

24%

Sheffield Utd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Cooper

Sheffield Utd · G

8.3

Match Events

41'

K. Moore↳ H. Burrows

52'

G. Hamer↳ H. Burrows

58'

A. Mehmeti← S. Twine

59'

Y. Hirakawa← G. Earthy

59'

M. McGuane← M. Bird

62'

C. O'Hare← T. Cannon

62'

T. Campbell← K. Moore

62'

R. Brewster← A. Brooks

68'

S. Bell← C. Pring

72'

J. Rak-Sakyi← G. Hamer

80'

T. Davies← Vinicius Souza

80'

H. Cornick← N. Wells

83'

C. O'Hare↳ T. Campbell

90'

Harry Cornick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBristol

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots11

1.33Expected Goals (xG)0.47

5Corners4

9Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target6

6Off Target2

7Blocked3

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

422Total Passes547

362Accurate Passes473

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

-0.95Goals Prevented-0.95

Discipline

9Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0