Sheffield Utd 1–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

D. McGoldrick 30'

3/3/2021

Premier League · Round 29Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sheffield Utd33%

×Draw23%

Aston Villa44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.78

Sheffield Utd

1.50

Aston Villa

1.78

Aston Villa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

1.36

creates per match

1.14

2.42

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.36

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.42

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.36scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

56%

Sheffield Utd or Aston Villa

77%

Draw or Aston Villa

67%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

15%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

83%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

53%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.42 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

33%

level

23%

Aston Villa scores more

44%

Aston Villa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Ramsdale

Sheffield Utd · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

D. McGoldrick↳ G. Baldock

45'

David McGoldrick

57'

Phil Jagielka

60'

O. Burke← R. Brewster

68'

M. Sanson← J. Ramsey

68'

R. Barkley← M. Nakamba

73'

B. Osborn← D. McGoldrick

81'

K. Davis← B. Traoré

89'

O. McBurnie← O. Burke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldAston

Overview

28%Possession72%

9Total Shots16

2Corners7

13Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots16

2On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked7

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box4

Passing

28%Possession72%

263Total Passes641

183Accurate Passes541

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1