Aston Villa 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

E. Konsa 63'

9/21/2020

Premier League · Round 2Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Aston Villa55%

×Draw24%

Sheffield Utd21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.94

Aston Villa

1.70

Sheffield Utd

0.94

Aston Villa creates 81% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

1.45

creates per match

0.59

1.29

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Sheffield Utd

0.59

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.95

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Sheffield Utd-0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

79%

Aston Villa or Sheffield Utd

76%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

45%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

30%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

82%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

51%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

24%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

61%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

24%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

73%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.95 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sheffield Utd attack 0.59 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aston Villa scores more

55%

level

24%

Sheffield Utd scores more

21%

Aston Villa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Konsa

Aston Villa · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

John Lundstram

12'

John Egan

31'

E. Ampadu← D. McGoldrick

33'

Matt Targett

34'

Chris BashamGoal cancelled

62'

K. Davis← C. Hourihane

63'

B. Osborn← J. Fleck

63'

E. Konsa↳ T. Mings

68'

O. McBurnie← C. Basham

83'

Matty Cash

84'

John McGinn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonSheffield

Overview

71%Possession29%

18Total Shots4

10Corners4

12Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots4

2On Target1

11Off Target2

5Blocked1

11Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

553Total Passes221

486Accurate Passes131

88%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0