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Sheasham vs Bulawayo Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2026

Sheasham
Sheasham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
10/8/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 26Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sheasham39%
×Draw33%
Bulawayo Chiefs29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheasham
1.00
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.81

Sheasham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sheasham
0.76
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.81

allows per match

Sheasham
0.82
Bulawayo Chiefs
1.24

finishing

Sheasham+0.00on par
Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheasham ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sheasham or draw
71%
Sheasham or Bulawayo Chiefs
67%
Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs
61%

Winning margin

Sheasham wins by 2+
15%
Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sheasham 1+ goals
63%
Sheasham 2+ goals
26%
Sheasham 3+ goals
8%
Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
56%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
19%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sheasham (draw refunded)
58%
Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheasham at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheasham attack 0.76 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + Sheasham defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheasham scores more
39%
level
33%
Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
29%

Sheasham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheasham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheasham vs Bulawayo Chiefs

Sheasham beat Bulawayo Chiefs 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.